Predictive simulation

EE Draw Simulator

Explore your invitation odds under different IRCC immigration policy scenarios.

Latest threshold476
Gap+4 ✓

Your score already exceeds the latest threshold — you'd be eligible now!

Current pace (2025)

Draws/yr26
Inv./draw3,800
Trend→

High immigration

Draws/yr40
Inv./draw6,000
Trend↓

Slowdown

Draws/yr18
Inv./draw2,000
Trend↑

French priority

Draws/yr30
Inv./draw4,500
Trend↓↓

Simulation results

For CRS score 480 — current threshold: 476

Current pace

Based on 2024–2025 IRCC average: ~26 draws/year, ~3,800 invitations/draw, CRS stable

Estimated median wait2 mo
In 12 monthsVery likely (93%)
6 months
84%
12 months
93%
18 months
95%
24 months
97%

High immigration

Canada increases targets: 40 draws/year, 6,000 invitations/draw, CRS trends down faster

Estimated median wait1 mo
In 12 monthsVery likely (97%)
6 months
94%
12 months
97%
18 months
98%
24 months
99%

Slowdown

Budget cuts reduce draws: 18 draws/year, 2,000 invitations, CRS stays high or rises

Estimated median wait10 mo
In 12 monthsPossible (54%)
6 months
43%
12 months
54%
18 months
59%
24 months
61%

French priority

IRCC expands French category: 30 dedicated draws/year at lower CRS (~420), faster for FSL profiles

Estimated median wait2 mo
In 12 monthsVery likely (100%)
6 months
96%
12 months
100%
18 months
100%
24 months
100%

Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations). These estimates are indicative and do not guarantee an invitation.

Recent IRCC draws (reference)

DateTypeCRS ScoreInvitationsYour status
October 1, 2026Trades Occupations, 2026-Version 34763,500Qualifies
September 29, 2026Canadian Experience Class5182,000-38 pts
September 28, 2026Provincial Nominee Program725733-245 pts
September 16, 2026Senior managers with Canadian Work Experience, 2026-Version 1389250Qualifies
September 15, 2026Canadian Experience Class5192,000-39 pts
September 14, 2026Provincial Nominee Program734576-254 pts
September 4, 2026Healthcare and Social Services Occupations, 2026-Version 34753,500Qualifies
September 3, 2026Physicians with Canadian Work Experience, 2026-Version 1198229Qualifies
September 1, 2026Canadian Experience Class5212,000-41 pts
August 31, 2026Provincial Nominee Program697562-217 pts

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